Future of Rail: The Industry Trends Shaping the Next Decade

EU rail passenger traffic reached a record 443 billion passenger-kilometres in 2024, up 5.8% on 2023, according to Eurostat. Demand has already arrived. Most of the technology meant to carry it through the next decade has not.

Of the six technology trends reviewed in this guide to the future of rail, one is in commercial service. Three are rolling out. Two are still pilots. Each rail industry trend below is placed on that scale:

• Deployed. In commercial service on at least one network.
• Rolling out. Contract signed or installation under way on a fleet or line.
• Pilot. Trial, demonstrator or test bed, with no commercial commitment yet.

The tightest gap is radio. FRMCS, the standard that will replace GSM-R, is still in testing. Yet some manufacturers will stop guaranteeing GSM-R maintenance from 2030, according to SNCF Réseau.

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Rail demand is at a record, and EU grants favour rail

Eurostat figures published in October 2025 put EU rail passenger traffic at 443 billion passenger-kilometres in 2024, against 419 billion in 2023. It is the highest level since data collection began.

EU funding points the same way. In July 2025, the European Commission selected 94 transport projects for nearly €2.8 billion in Connecting Europe Facility grants. Rail received 77% of that total. Forty-six of the projects deploy the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) across 11 Member States.

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FRMCS: still in testing, with GSM-R support thinning from 2030

GSM-R is the radio system linking trains, drivers and control centres across European networks today. Its successor, FRMCS (Future Railway Mobile Communication System), is based on 3GPP 5G technology. ETSI puts GSM-R's estimated end of life around 2035.

For some networks, the squeeze comes earlier. SNCF Réseau says some manufacturers will no longer guarantee GSM-R maintenance from 2030. In France, migration is planned between 2028 and 2035, with gradual commercial operation from 2032.

The standard itself is still being validated. FP2-MORANE-2, the EU-funded validation project, started on 1 December 2024. It runs for 34 months, with €13.5 million in co-funding and 28 partner organisations, according to UIC. It tests FRMCS connectivity, GSM-R interworking and multi-vendor interoperability. Work runs across three integration laboratories and five railway lines in Spain, Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands.

The project passed its mid-term point in July 2026. At that stage, it moved from design work to large-scale testing and validation.

National trials follow the same calendar. In Spain, Adif aims to start FRMCS technical trials in 2026 on the León-Matallana test section.

The gap is therefore concrete. Maintenance cover for the old system starts thinning in 2030, two years before FRMCS enters gradual commercial operation in France. Any train or radio system bought this decade will operate through the switchover. Buyers can ask now whether new trains and radio equipment are FRMCS-ready.

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Satellite Wi-Fi on trains: two fleet-wide rollouts announced in 2026

In February 2026, Italo announced it will fit Starlink across its entire high-speed fleet. The rollout runs from mid-2026 to 2027. Over about a year of trials at 300 km/h, Italo reported speeds above 400 Mbps and 25 ms latency.

In June 2026, UK open-access operator Lumo announced Starlink-based Wi-Fi for its East Coast Main Line trains from autumn 2026. Icomera is the connectivity integrator. ISPreview noted it was unclear how tunnelled sections would be covered.

Two announcements do not make a market standard. They do show that low Earth orbit (LEO) backhaul has reached fleet-wide rollout plans at some operators. The technical trade-offs are covered in how LEO satellites are changing train internet.

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Rail automation and AI: one deployed use, one rollout, one trial

Automation covers very different levels of maturity. Three cases show the spread.

• AI-assisted dispatching, deployed. Deutsche Bahn uses an in-house AI tool that recommends how dispatchers handle disruptions. In Stuttgart, DB says it compensates for delays of up to eight minutes.
• Automatic train operation with a driver (GoA2), rolling out. In April 2025, Alstom won a contract worth over €60 million to fit ETCS and ATO to 82 S-Bahn Hamburg trains. Four prototypes are due by 2029. Deutsche Bahn will retrofit the other 78.
• Driverless main-line operation (GoA4), pilot. In November 2025, a one-year automatic operation trial began on the Betuwe freight route in the Netherlands. DB Cargo leads it, with €18.9 million from the German transport ministry. A test team stays in the cab.

This is where automation meets the demand curve. ProRail estimates that full GoA4 operation could add 20% to 30% capacity on certain corridors. That gain sits at the least mature level of the three.

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New high-speed fleets: contracts signed, deliveries years away

In October 2026, Renfe awarded Siemens Mobility a €1.218 billion contract for 30 Velaro Novo trains, maintenance included, with an option for 10 more. The trains are designed for 350 km/h and seat 520 passengers. Renfe expects the first five units within 40 months. The order is signed today. The capacity arrives later.

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Passenger experience now has a dedicated UIC forum

In April 2026, UIC held its first Passenger Week, with over 200 participants from 35 countries and 93 companies. Customer experience and accessibility were among its central themes. The passenger-side trends are covered in 4 trends shaping the rail passenger experience in 2026, and operator approaches onboard in digital services for rail operators.

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What to watch: rail trends by maturity

Demand is measured. Most of the technology meant to carry it is not yet in service.

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See how 48 European rail brands handle onboard entertainment